Even if the market has been on a clear down since its March 2022 peak, there are clear signs that many “heavily invested in watches” have been waiting until the first official XXL discounts hit the market before making a move. The numbers and conclusions of the recently published WatchCarts-Morgan Stanley report attest to that. Grey market dealers being vigilant with each other, nervously waiting to see who will do the first move. A race to offload inventory that will begin when the first prices are thrown under the bus. Think of it as a high stakes game of musical chairs. All waiting for the music to stop, petrified to be the last one standing. The unfortunate result of a hyper inflated stock of watches.

During the two previous crashes of 2000 and 2008, 30-40% discounts were not only a recourse but also a lifeboat for many. A discount strategy that was widely used to offload excess stock by authorized dealers. Yet this time, a massive discount applied on an excessive artificially inflated watch market seems not to have the desired salvation effect. The most notable difference with previous crashes is that back then the watch market did not have such an elevated price as a starting point. In short, the old trick of raising prices a month before Black Friday to then apply substantial discounts isn’t yielding the desired results. What is cause for concern is that “unofficial” discounts by “official” dealers (once an unspoken lifeline) isn’t an option in many cases. A solution hard to enforce due to the previous scarcity narrative and that many authorized dealers have since gradually been replaced by brand boutiques. Boutiques that uphold the sacred sanctum-sanctorum of non-negotiable list prices through thick and thin. So, what’s their strategy to offload now? From here it certainly looks like the watch industry has yet again shot itself in the foot.

BANG!

It only takes a brief tour of one’s favourite online dealers to realise that discount season is now officially open. Items in stock are being discounted up to -40%. Out of stock items seem to remain solid but for how long? Look no further than Watches of Switzerland to see how discounts have just started to multiply (with Zenith being discounted the most). Incidentally, I don’t recall receiving so many newsletters offering watches at very special price from Hodinkee. As much as it pains me (NOT) I will remove myself from what has become a very annoying mailing list. Last but not least, boutiques have also been VERY active calling collectors. To the point of several fellow collectors have ended up blocking their phones. Most amusing is how hard it is for the sales staff to juggle the imposed scarcity narrative with a pressing need to sell. One or two, well placed “innocent” questions and the “I am doing you a favour” narrative collapses like a house of cards.

There is a recurrent “tell” in the industry. When you hear anybody affirm “… watches are an investment!”, be very aware that this statement marks the unequivocal end of the upward watch market. Once you hear that, the market is about to crash.

So what now when even substantial discounts won’t do? It certainly feels that the inflationary commercial strategy has just put more than one brand in a complex situation. What was a strategy that intended to compensate for a drop of sales might today have caused a serious blockade.

Our responsibility as collectors

Our first responsibility is to not forget. Not forget all those that not long ago closed the door in your face. It isn’t the time to give in and buy what was once denied to you. Even if tempting, no matter how big the discount, don’t give in. If you have lived without it until now, you certainly can survive without it in the future. Now is the best moment to evolve. A perfect junction to reflect upon where your collecting journey is taking you. Will you be a brand-bitch or will you take this opportunity grow?

So where to find horological salvation? When all hope is lost, be vigilant. When the outlook seems grim there is always a ray of light even in the darkest hours. Do your research but not in the places you have done until now. Explore other alternatives and question everything. Sooner rather than later, amongst the chaff, noise, smoke and darkness, when you thought all hope was lost, there… the “one” you have been waiting for!!!

At the risk of sounding pedantic, independents are not the safe place they once used to be. Considerable due diligence is needed today before taking a decision. The watch media are of little help since they won’t disclose any negatives when brands are concerned. Some media have become nothing but a predictable caricature of what they once used to be. Many becoming victim of the need to create a constant stream of content (on a limited subject…) and true opinion being held hostage by paying brand. Ultimately becoming a source of laughter and ridicule amongst collector circles.

Despite all the hype these last years there are brands out there that have held their due course with some dignity. Brands that have not banked on artificial scarcity or resorted to inflation tactics to compensate for lower sales. Brands that never bet on uncontrolled growth and held their production numbers within reason despite temptation. Many of them lived through at least one horological crash in their life time. They’ve all chosen a sustainable longterm strategy way before the term “sustainable” was even a thing.

The usual suspects

Within the madness, surprisingly there are also some commercial/mainstream brands that have somewhat held their side of the bargain during even the hype years. Or at least they have not gone absolutely insane. TUDOR, Oris, BALL Watch, Vulcain, Breitling and perhaps even TAG Heuer have kept things within VERY reasonable bounds. Cartier and Bvlgari have also kept their prices within check when you look at the Octo or Santos line. Rolex is (and will remain) a wildcard. The question is at what stage in your collecting journey you are and if any of the mentioned or about to be mentioned fit your needs.

Unlike too many YouTubers, bloggers, podcasters and social media arrivistes that parachuted themselves in the middle of horology, my recommendations are very well founded. Choices made by having owned, parted bread regularly or having dealt personally through several projects. In all these years they have never disappointed. So, my “small-batch indies” list of usual suspects are: Dornblüth & Sohn, Habring², Laine, RESSENCE, Sartory Billard, URWERK, Zeitwinkel...

Thank god for them, in even the darkest hour, horology still makes sense. Perhaps there are many on this list that don’t conform to personal aesthetic tastes or economic threshold but safety in management and value for money are beyond reproach. This is a list that allows for peace of mind and most important, a clear conscience.

#rulesaremeanttobebroken 🥃🕶️⁠

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